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With iPad, Apple is No. 3 in portables, Let the Howling Begin
The best thing about this isn't that Apple jumps to #3, but rather that it's become realistic to include tablets in the mobile PC numbers to begin with. At the iPad launch just a few months ago this was unheard of, but the iPad has proven so capable it's not a wild idea, it's becoming obvious.
Traditional PC vendors—who still have no iPad rival—will howl and protest at this suggestion. We'll be told that only the type of PC we've been using for years fits in this category. Their rhetoric will be tailored not only against products they don't sell, but also to soothe baffled consumers and IT groups who can't imagine that "portable" isn't synonymous with laptop.
We'll see a lot of this, but ultimately it will fail. When the iPhone came out there was lots of talk about how it wasn't really a smartphone, but that BS didn't last, either. The market defines product categories, not the tech shills and marketers who want to bend a definition to include only what they sell.
Forrester Research: Tablets Will Only Steal Sales From... Desktops?
What other conclusion can be drawn from the graph? From 2010, netbook sales barely change (18 to 17%), and laptops barely change (44 to 42%). With the tablet rising from 6 to 23%, it all comes out of desktop share (32 to 18%).
Um...
Forrester's report is questionable right up front. It predicts sales of 3.5M tablets this year, and 20.4M in 2015. Those numbers are so low it's ridiculous. Apple is already over 2M sales this year; Forrester thinks they can't even double that by December 31? Thats nuts. Apple will hit 8M or more this year, and who knows what other tablet players will join the game in the coming months.
As for netbooks, I disagree their sales percentage will remain steady over the next five years. Their sales growth is already slowing. People are figuring out they're not the "laptop" they promise to be. Netbooks have all the headaches of PCs without the size or power to have enough of the benefits. Cheap laptops make better sense, and a tablet even more-so. Netbooks' day in the sun is nearing its end; I see a pretty small trickle five years hence.
Regarding laptops, they'll feel the pinch of tablets getting faster with more sophisticated software, which won't take long. Look at where the software is already: iWork or Documents To Go productivity suites; Photogene for great image editing; Reel Director or iMovie for iPhone (iPad won't be far behind) for video, etc. And these are here now, imagine what we'll have in just a year. I could argue these apps are already close to doing what the majority of consumers need in these areas. There are certainly rough edges, but they'll get smoothed. Laptops are going to feel the heat sooner than Forrester imagines.
I agree on desktops' decline, but that's already happening and has been for a while. Laptops have eaten their lunch in the past, but tablets will encroach on laptops as explained above.
The tablet form factor is going to be huge. I'm already on record that it's how "all" computers will work someday, and I don't think critical mass will take as long as the GUI did, which is apparently what Forrester is expecting.
Just 20M tablets sold in 2015? They'll pass that number in 2012. Netbook and laptop percentage will decline more than Forrester is predicting, and tablet percentages will be higher. Forrester's report seems written to appease those vested in the status quo, but it doesn't make it realistic.
iPad hits the road
Given my experience on this trip, I wouldn’t hesitate for a moment to recommend iPad to anyone as a mobile computer or, depending on your needs, even a laptop replacement. You barely notice it in your briefcase, the battery seems to last forever and it does all of its jobs beautifully.
Nice "road review".
Netbook Sales Growth Sagging: What Took So Long?
The sales growth of netbooks, priced from $200 to $500 and resembling shrunk-down laptops, slowed markedly in the first quarter, according to market researcher IDC.
This should come as a shock to no one, but of course it will. The netbook is a cheap cheap laptop, OK? That's all it's ever been. Nothing more, nothing less. Laptops went from well over $1K, to cheap laptops in the $600 range, and netbooks brought them down to $300.
Those lower divisions brought cheaper components, lower quality, weak processors, etc. They had to. For some that might be good enough, but it doesn't change the fact that netbooks are a significant compromise to the laptop they emulate. For many, the netbook brought disappointment when they found out there really is no such thing as a $300 laptop.
As for manufacturers, they found out that, while they could brag about sales in terms of number of units, there's little profit. No wonder the big names are scaling back.
Walt Mossberg Apple iPad Review: Laptop Killer? Pretty Close
After spending hours and hours with it, I believe this beautiful new touch-screen device from Apple has the potential to change portable computing profoundly, and to challenge the primacy of the laptop.
I already know two people in my household for which the iPad is easily a laptop replacement. In fact, I'm betting they'll get more things done because the computer's power is more accessible than ever.
Inside the Macintosh Portable
Great teardown by Technologizer of the Mac Portable, which celebrates its 20th anniversary today.
She's Still PC But It Doesn't Matter: Lauren's Back!
