Android or iPhone: Where is the Mobile Developer Money?

Android has more developers, yet its percentage of paid apps is much smaller than the iPhone platform. Why is that?

One might think the "open" nature of Android attracts a larger base of developers willing to contribute for nothing, but the fact is it's hard to sell apps on Android. You can only pay for apps in 13 countries, and you can only sell priced apps from nine countries. This is nuts compared to the iPhone's 90 countries, and just another Android "dirty little secret." Take heart, though, you can always sign a petition to make it better.

I know it doesn't have to be about money. Many people do labors of love for "free." Maybe it's a learning experience, a way to unwind, or a sense of community or connecting with people. These could all be valid payments for your work. Not wanting monetary compensation is a personal choice that can't be judged. Indeed, though I buy a lot of apps I appreciate "free" software as much as anybody.

Having said that, if money's what you're looking for the iPhone platform is clearly where you want to be in mobile development.

Business Insider On the Outside Regarding Apple Long-Term

Fast forward 5 to 10 years and it’s not hard to imagine seeing Apple with a small (but probably very profitable) share of the smartphone market. It will be a niche player in the market it revolutionized and could have dominated. History seems bound to repeat itself!

Actually, it's pretty hard to imagine the above outcome. In order to do so you'd have to forget that:

  • Phones aren't PCs; that model doesn't apply. 
  • There's zero price advantage in non-iPhones. Indeed, Apple set the price points at $99 and $199, which initially could only be met by competitors via mail-in rebates. 
  • The iPod model is far closer to the iPhone model, and no one's touched Apple in this area. 
  • Android gains are almost all on the back of Verizon, who can't sell the iPhone.
  • Android's becoming more fragmented every day. (A new phone released this week is using version 1.5.)

Ignore all of that—as many seem to—and it's still hard to imagine Business Insider's projected outcome. Because nowhere in the scenario does Apple's Board of Directors toss out their brilliant CEO (and the team he's put together) to bring in a line of unprepared bozos as replacements. Nope. Ain't happening.

What Did Antennagate Do To Apple iPhone Sales?

The bottom line is that "Antennagate" had no material effect on sales.

Nothing.

Chart: Apple revenue by product

This is from Jason Snell's excellent breakdown on Apple's 2Q results.

There was a brief Twitter dialog about this kind of chart being better than a "stacked" chart, since it's hard to get a bead on what each product contributes when they're piled on top of each other. With a chart like this, each product is plotted from zero, so the iPhone's rapid rise from nothing to exceed them all is very evident.

Apple's best non-holiday quarter ever.

Here's the data sheet. They blew past everybody's projections:

  • 2.94M Macs
  • 10.89 iPods
  • 8.75 iPhones

Especially amazing when you consider the March quarter is always the worst one of the year. It doesn't have the holiday sales of Q1, K-12 education sales of Q3, or higher ed sales of Q4.

And while everybody is sitting around waiting for the iPod to die, it's still there selling 10M or more a quarter.

Of Apple's revenue, 28% is Mac, 14% is iPod, and a whopping 40% is the iPhone.

Next quarter, with the iPad added into the mix, is going to be an interesting one to see.

Apple Press Release: Over 300,000 iPads First Day

These sales included deliveries of pre-ordered iPads to customers, deliveries to channel partners and sales at Apple Retail Stores.

When did Apple start including deliveries to the channel in their sales figures? Are these really "sales"?

What A Difference 12 Years And Steve Jobs Make.

Apple's incredible turnaround since acquiring NeXT (and Steve Jobs) 12 years ago is well known. Apple's been strong for over a decade, with exceptional growth far ahead of the industry, especially the last five years. 

When every quarter seems to set a new sales record, even amidst a glum economy, it's easy to become a bit jaded about the whole thing. I mean, ho hum, a few million more Macs, another 10 million iPods, and that new phone thing seems to be doing splendidly. 

So let's put some of this into perspective. The above slide is from Steve Jobs' talk at Macworld 1997 in Boston. It's the slide used when discussing "The Problem" at Apple. Put simply, sales in '95 were $11.1B, in '96 $9.5B, and in '97 (estimated) $7B. Going rapidly downhill, Apple was bleeding money. 

Fast forward to Apple's recent Q4 '09 results. Sales were $9.87B. That blows the doors off '97 and handily beats '96. Think about it; Apple bested these entire years' sales in just one quarter. And it wasn't even a holiday quarter.

But that's not all. Apple reports sales with one arm tied behind its back. It doesn't recognize all iPhone revenue immediately, instead spreading it out over two years due to specific accounting requirements. Those requirements are changing, however, and without them the adjusted figure for Q4 is $12.25B, which even blows '95 away. 

Turnaround, indeed.