As of right now, and always subject to change.
It was early July, 2001 when Apple finally threw in the towel on the Cube. Introduced to much fanfare as the G4 Cube only a year earlier, the device never met Apple’s sales expectations.
Not all was lost, however, the radical design earned it a place at the New York Museum of Modern Art.
What was probably most interesting about the Cube’s demise was Jobs quoted as saying:
“That was not a failure of design,” Mr. Jobs said. “It was a failure of concept. We targeted the Cube at a professional audience. We thought they would rather have something small on the desk than expandability and we were wrong. It was a wrong concept — fabulously implemented.”
What other conclusion can be drawn from the graph? From 2010, netbook sales barely change (18 to 17%), and laptops barely change (44 to 42%). With the tablet rising from 6 to 23%, it all comes out of desktop share (32 to 18%).
Forrester’s report is questionable right up front. It predicts sales of 3.5M tablets this year, and 20.4M in 2015. Those numbers are so low it’s ridiculous. Apple is already over 2M sales this year; Forrester thinks they can’t even double that by December 31? Thats nuts. Apple will hit 8M or more this year, and who knows what other tablet players will join the game in the coming months.
As for netbooks, I disagree their sales percentage will remain steady over the next five years. Their sales growth is already slowing. People are figuring out they’re not the “laptop” they promise to be. Netbooks have all the headaches of PCs without the size or power to have enough of the benefits. Cheap laptops make better sense, and a tablet even more-so. Netbooks’ day in the sun is nearing its end; I see a pretty small trickle five years hence.
Regarding laptops, they’ll feel the pinch of tablets getting faster with more sophisticated software, which won’t take long. Look at where the software is already: iWork or Documents To Go productivity suites; Photogene for great image editing; Reel Director or iMovie for iPhone (iPad won’t be far behind) for video, etc. And these are here now, imagine what we’ll have in just a year. I could argue these apps are already close to doing what the majority of consumers need in these areas. There are certainly rough edges, but they’ll get smoothed. Laptops are going to feel the heat sooner than Forrester imagines.
I agree on desktops’ decline, but that’s already happening and has been for a while. Laptops have eaten their lunch in the past, but tablets will encroach on laptops as explained above.
The tablet form factor is going to be huge. I’m already on record that it’s how “all” computers will work someday, and I don’t think critical mass will take as long as the GUI did, which is apparently what Forrester is expecting.
Just 20M tablets sold in 2015? They’ll pass that number in 2012. Netbook and laptop percentage will decline more than Forrester is predicting, and tablet percentages will be higher. Forrester’s report seems written to appease those vested in the status quo, but it doesn’t make it realistic.
The work PC I brought home has two monitors. The same wallpaper on each screen looks silly, so I went over to Digital Blasphemy and snapped up a bunch of dual-screen ‘papers. The six shown here are just a few of the many I downloaded. Beautiful stuff.
They’re not free, but for $15 you get 90 days access, which means you could easily download everything there. It also means you generally don’t see this wallpaper on other machines, keeping your PC unique. I’d say 75% of the wallpapers on my Macs and PCs are from DB.
A few emails I received about my Snow Leopard Discovery Series did not rave about the writing, but rather were inquiries about the desktop picture (above). So I’m plugging the artist and site from where I got it.
The picture — and most of the desktop wallpaper I use — is the work of Ryan Bliss, who maintains a site called Digital Blasphemy. I don’t know Ryan, have never met him, and have never even communicated with him. I stumbled on his site a couple years ago and thought the work was beautiful.
It’s a subscription site, but very reasonable. I joined for 90 days for just $15 and downloaded 100 pictures (there’s over 650). It’s not just that they’re great wallpapers, but also that they’re unique. These are pictures most other people won’t have; your Mac or PC will stand out from the crowd. To me, the $15 was well spent.
There’s a page of 20 free wallpapers to check out. Then, after seeing the free stuff and browsing the site, get out a crowbar and pry at least $15 from your wallet to help support the guy and keep him making great stuff. Next time I’m joining for a year.