Forrester Research: Tablets Will Only Steal Sales From… Desktops?

 

What other conclusion can be drawn from the graph? From 2010, netbook sales barely change (18 to 17%), and laptops barely change (44 to 42%). With the tablet rising from 6 to 23%, it all comes out of desktop share (32 to 18%).

Um…

Forrester’s report is questionable right up front. It predicts sales of 3.5M tablets this year, and 20.4M in 2015. Those numbers are so low it’s ridiculous. Apple is already over 2M sales this year; Forrester thinks they can’t even double that by December 31? Thats nuts. Apple will hit 8M or more this year, and who knows what other tablet players will join the game in the coming months.

As for netbooks, I disagree their sales percentage will remain steady over the next five years. Their sales growth is already slowing. People are figuring out they’re not the “laptop” they promise to be. Netbooks have all the headaches of PCs without the size or power to have enough of the benefits. Cheap laptops make better sense, and a tablet even more-so. Netbooks’ day in the sun is nearing its end; I see a pretty small trickle five years hence. 

Regarding laptops, they’ll feel the pinch of tablets getting faster with more sophisticated software, which won’t take long. Look at where the software is already: iWork or Documents To Go productivity suites; Photogene for great image editing; Reel Director or iMovie for iPhone (iPad won’t be far behind) for video, etc. And these are here now, imagine what we’ll have in just a year. I could argue these apps are already close to doing what the majority of consumers need in these areas. There are certainly rough edges, but they’ll get smoothed. Laptops are going to feel the heat sooner than Forrester imagines.

I agree on desktops’ decline, but that’s already happening and has been for a while. Laptops have eaten their lunch in the past, but tablets will encroach on laptops as explained above. 

The tablet form factor is going to be huge. I’m already on record that it’s how “all” computers will work someday, and I don’t think critical mass will take as long as the GUI did, which is apparently what Forrester is expecting.

Just 20M tablets sold in 2015? They’ll pass that number in 2012. Netbook and laptop percentage will decline more than Forrester is predicting, and tablet percentages will be higher. Forrester’s report seems written to appease those vested in the status quo, but it doesn’t make it realistic.

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Bill Gates: Still clinging to a failed vision

“We’re all trying to get to something that you just love to take to a meeting and use and [the iPad] is not quite there yet. You need to have input. You need to take notes and edit things.

[Gates wants a device] “where I can use the pen, where I can use voice.”

This is just proof that, on a visionary scale of 1 to 10, Gates is a -2. After nearly a decade of his “vision” of tablet PCs failing miserably in the market place—in large due to his insistence that no specialIzed OS was needed—he still thinks they need pen input. This for a generation of users who input via keyboard 90% of the time.

Oh, and voice input, because you’ll want that in a meeting when taking notes.

Pen input isn’t going mainstream, there’s little need. Voice will be big, but we’re nowhere near that as a practical input method for the masses, so we may as well be talking about flying cars.

Anyone who thinks Microsoft would be better off with this guy in charge is ascribing to him talents he does not possess. He left when he saw where Microsoft was headed. They’re a two-hit wonder. Nothing wrong with that, but it’s all they’ll ever be, and are now at the point where all they can do is milk that out.

HP CEO: Our purchase of Palm doesn’t mean what you think it means.

We didn’t buy Palm to be in the smartphone business. And I tell people that, but it doesn’t seem to resonate well.

It’s like that old retort after someone states an obvious move: “No… that’s just what they’d be expecting us to do.”

Ha ha! HP just fooled us all.

I’ve said that I believe HP wanted an OS of their own for their mobile strategy. They saw the coming rise of mobiles, knew Microsoft couldn’t help them there, and wanted something to fuel their new devices. To me it was obvious this meant more than smartphones, but it was equally obvious it included smartphones.

This does not bode well for HP’s strategic thinking, so I’ll close by simply reminding you again…

What Sales of Two Million iPads Can Tell Us

May 31, 2010—Apple® today announced that iPad™ sales have topped two million in less than 60 days since its launch on April 3.

There’s the inevitable comparison to the corresponding iPod and iPhone sales marks, but I don’t think it can reveal the iPad’s overall popularity compared to those devices. After all, iPods now routinely sell over 10M a quarter, and iPhone sales are always encumbered with carrier contracts.

What I do think we can see is that, increasingly, the iPhone OS is becoming “mainstream”. By this, I mean there’s less concern in the mind of the average consumer that a purely touch interface can work. No more garbage about how the screen will get too oily, you can’t use a software keyboard, etc. Put simply, the paradigm shift from keyboard/mouse to touch screen—at least for tasks most consumers do—is less of a question. As more and more consumers understand this, iPad sales will continue to roll.

The latest iPad ad contains the line “You already know how to use it.” Though a simple statement, I believe it’s at the very core of the iPad’s rapid rise in sales.

I’m sure Apple is terrified

We’re looking at all the things Google has in its archives that we could put on a tablet to make it a great experience

The quote makes it sound like they’re rooting through Google’s dumpsters to bolt on whatever they find.

Good luck to them, but one is a wireless carrier, and the other an ad firm. Shouldn’t they get some hardware people involved before they decide what they’re going to build?

I’m sure Apple is terrified

We’re looking at all the things Google has in its archives that we could put on a tablet to make it a great experience

The quote makes it sound like they’re rooting through Google’s dumpsters to bolt on whatever they find.

Good luck to them, but one is a wireless carrier, and the other an ad firm. Shouldn’t they get some hardware people involved before they decide what they’re going to build?

HP webOS tablet rumored for this Fall

An insider at HP tells us that a webOS tablet under the code name HP Hurricane could be released the third quarter of this year.

I thought it would be nearly a year before HP could get a webOS tablet on the market. This rumor may be BS, but if true could mean a few things:

  • They’re rushing something to market because of Apple’s huge lead, and won’t let Apple have the holiday season to themselves. This would be a huge mistake, and one I think HP is smart enough to avoid.
  • They’re dreaming, and the date is half prayer, half vapor. They won’t make the date, but some people may hang on and wait to see what HP’s “iPad killer” can do.
  • They’ve had an ARM-based tablet in the works for a while (for Android?), and they’re simply shifting it to a webOS machine.

HP had talked of various tablets, so the last item is not out of the realm of possibility. I hope for HP’s sake that’s what it is. A device rushed to market would be a disaster, and the public is not likely to give them a second chance.